Ocean Freight Rates China → USA: November 2025 Live Update + Full 2026 Forecastg
If you’re an Amazon FBA seller or SMB importer watching your container costs like a hawk right now, you’re not alone.
Spot rates are now at their lowest levels since mid-2023 — but the window to lock in ultra-low contract rates for all of 2026 is closing fast. → The forwarders who can actually lock these rates today (and still deliver perfect FBA prep) are ranked in our freshly updated guide to the best freight forwarder for Amazon FBA in 2026.
As of November 20, 2025, ocean freight rates from China to the USA have softened dramatically after the post-truce demand drop and early front-loading earlier this year. Spot rates are now at their lowest levels since mid-2023 — but the window to lock in ultra-low contract rates for all of 2026 is closing fast.
TL;DR – Everything You Need to Know in 60 Seconds
- Current spot rates (Nov 20, 2025): $1,950–$2,650 per 40ft to US West Coast │ $3,100–$3,900 to East Coast
- Rates down 55–60% year-over-year and still falling week-on-week
- 2026 base-case forecast: another 15–30% drop across the full year thanks to ~9 million TEU of new vessels hitting the water
- Unicargo clients are already locking 12-month contracts at $1,850–$2,450 (we beat market indices by 10–25%)
- Chinese New Year 2026 (Feb 17 official start) → blank sailings begin late January → expect a sharp but short spike
- Action right now: Lock your 2026 rate in the next 30–45 days before carriers pull capacity and the mini CNY spike hits
Live Rates Snapshot – November 20, 2025
Here’s the exact data we pull daily for our clients (sources: Freightos FBX, Drewry WCI, Xeneta + our own live bookings):
Rates include ocean freight + bunker but exclude peak season surcharges (PSS), congestion, or customs. Unicargo rates shown are actual bookings this week for Amazon-friendly forwarders with FBA prep.
Unicargo Real Client Rate (DDP available) → These are the exact rates seven- and eight-figure sellers get with the current top-ranked freight forwarder for Amazon FBA
Month-over-Month & Year-over-Year Changes
- October → November 2025: West Coast down 15–20%, East Coast down 10–15%
- November 2024 → November 2025: Down 55–62% – the truce calm + massive newbuild deliveries are crushing spot rates
The 2026 Overcapacity Tsunami Explained
Over 9 million TEU of new container ships will be delivered in 2026 alone — that’s roughly 25–30% more capacity than global demand growth (forecast ~3–4%).
Carriers ordered these mega-vessels during the 2021–2022 boom… and now they’re all arriving at once. Even with Red Sea diversions absorbing some capacity, the math is brutal: too many ships, not enough cargo.
2026 Forecast: The 3 Scenarios That Will Actually Happen
- Trade truce holds (60% probability) → Pure overcapacity bloodbath → Spot rates crash another 25–35% across the year → Contract rates settle $1,500–$2,100 West Coast by Q4
- New tariffs return or escalate (25% probability) → Q1 front-loading spike, then deeper crash → January–March rates jump temporarily, then free-fall once inventories are stuffed
- Base case (most likely) → Steady softening all year → Average 2026 contract rates 15–25% lower than today → Long-term rates end 2026 ~20% below December 2023 (pre-Red Sea crisis) levels
(Xeneta & Drewry both agree: 2026 will be the year of the carrier bloodbath.)
Hidden Fees That Turn a “Cheap” Quote into a Nightmare
Everyone quotes the base ocean rate — here’s what actually shows up on the final invoice:
- Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): $500–$1,500 (still being attempted)
- Bunker / Low-Sulfur Surcharge: $300–$600
- Port Congestion Surcharge (LA/LGB): $100–$400
- General Rate Increase (GRI): $500–$1,000 (carriers try monthly)
- Carrier Security Fee, ISPS, etc.: another $150–$250
→ A $2,200 “quote” easily becomes $3,800 all-in with a cheap forwarder.
What Amazon FBA Sellers & Importers Are Actually Paying Right Now
Three real (anonymized) Unicargo bookings this week:
- Electronics seller – 3×40ft from Shenzhen → Long Beach: $2,310 all-in DDP (saved $1,800 vs market)
- Home & kitchen brand – 5×40ft Ningbo → Savannah: $3,550 average (East Coast routing)
- Toy importer – 2×40ft Shanghai → Los Angeles: $2,180 locked for Q1 2026 already
All include FBA prep, labeling, and zero customs headaches.
Your 60-Day Action Plan Before Chinese New Year Chaos
Chinese New Year 2026 officially starts February 17 (Year of the Horse), but factories slow down from late January and carriers start blank sailings ~Jan 20.
Do this now (November–December 2025):
- Pull forward any Q1/Q2 inventory you can
- Get 6–12 month contract rate quotes (valid through 2026)
- Switch to a forwarder that can lock rates today (we’re doing it daily) → See the exact forwarders that are winning right now in our independent 2026 ranking: choosing the right Amazon FBA freight forwarder in 2026 can save you $1,000–$2,000 per container versus the wrong one.)
- Download our free 2026 Rate Forecaster spreadsheet (link below)
Ready to Lock Your 2026 Rate Before the Window Closes?
→Get Your Locked 2026 Contract Rate Quote (takes 2 minutes)
→ Prefer to speak to one of our team experts? Click here
Don’t pay 2024 prices in 2026. The smart money is locking low rates right now.
FAQ – Ocean Freight Rates China to USA 2025–2026
- What is the current ocean freight rate from China to USA West Coast in November 2025? Spot rates are $1,950–$2,650 per 40ft HC. Real all-in client rates with good forwarders are $2,050–$2,900.
- How much does a 40ft container cost from Shanghai to Los Angeles right now? Market spot ~$2,000–$2,400; Unicargo clients are paying $2,050–$2,450 all-in this week.
- Will ocean freight rates from China to USA drop further in 2026? Yes — analysts forecast another 15–30% drop on average due to massive overcapacity.
- When does Chinese New Year 2026 start affecting shipping rates? Blank sailings and factory slowdowns begin late January 2026; official holiday starts February 17.
- What’s the difference between spot rates and contract rates right now? Spot rates change weekly and are volatile. Contract rates (6–12 months) are 10–30% lower and locked — this is the smartest move today.
- Are ocean freight rates to US East Coast higher than West Coast? Yes, typically $1,000–$1,500 more per 40ft because of longer transit and Panama Canal fees.
- Should Amazon FBA sellers switch to air freight in early 2026? Only if you have thin margins and urgent replenishment. Ocean + locked contract is still 70–90% cheaper.
- What are the latest Freightos Baltic Index (FBX01) and Drewry rates for China → USA? FBX01 West Coast: ~$1,999 │ Drewry Shanghai–LA: ~$2,328 (as of mid-November).
- How can I lock in low 2026 ocean freight rates today? Work with a forwarder that offers 12-month contracts right now → The best freight forwarders for Amazon FBA are the only ones with the volume and carrier relationships to give you these locked rates today (full 2026 ranking here).
- Why are some freight forwarders quoting $1,900 when indices show $2,600+? Volume leverage + direct carrier relationships. That’s exactly what Unicargo delivers for our clients every day.
Why This Rate Update Is More Accurate Than Any Other Source
You won’t find this level of transparency anywhere else. Here’s exactly where our numbers come from:
- Live daily rates pulled November 20, 2025 from Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), Drewry World Container Index, Xeneta, and SCFI
- 1,200+ active ocean bookings Unicargo executed in October–November 2025 alone (real client invoices, not guesses)
- Direct carrier rate sheets from Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, ONE, ZIM, and Hapag-Lloyd
- Verified all-in DDP quotes for Amazon FBA sellers moving 40ft containers from Shanghai/Ningbo/Shenzhen → ONT8, ATL4, and LAX9
- Internal transit-time and cost-per-CBM logs across 4,000+ Amazon FBA shipments in 2025
We move this volume every week, so the rates you see here are what seven- and eight-figure sellers are actually paying today — not theoretical index numbers.
About Unicargo – Built for Amazon FBA & SMB Importers
Founded in 2015 as one of the first logistics companies created exclusively for Amazon sellers, Unicargo now moves over $400M in freight annually.
We specialize in:
- Door-to-door DDP ocean, air, and express from China, Vietnam, India, and Europe
- Full Amazon FBA prep centers in the U.S. (California, Nevada, New Jersey, Texas) and Europe
- Duty-optimization audits (saved clients $7.4M in tariffs in 2025 alone)
- Bonded warehousing, tariff engineering, and Section 321 expertise
- Real-time tracking platform with automated Amazon appointment booking
- Dedicated 7-day support teams in English, Mandarin, and Spanish
Industries we dominate: consumer electronics, home & kitchen, beauty, toys, pet supplies, outdoor & sports, automotive parts, and hazmat/chemicals.
Offices and warehouses in Los Angeles, New Jersey, Texas, London, Germany, India, and direct operations in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, and Ho Chi Minh City.
